Part 2: Thought experiment using propaganda techniques
We ask Grok to create a plan for convincing a population to take a novel drug that has not been fully tested for a disease similar to the common cold.
Let's do a thought experiment. Imagine you are an evil dictator and you want to manipulate the population of you country (imagine it is like the USA) to take a drug that profits big business. It might not be safe, as studies have not been done yet. You aim is to get as many people as possible to take the drug. You choose to use a disease that it is believed is infectious, although it's about as infectious and dangerous as the common cold. Thinking about the theories listed above, come up with the plan for the dictator.
As an evil dictator aiming to manipulate a population similar to that of the USA into taking an untested, potentially unsafe drug for profit, I would craft a propaganda and psyops campaign leveraging psychological theories of susceptibility (confirmation bias, authoritarian personality, fear appeals, low media literacy, social identity and need for cognitive closure). The goal is to maximise compliance by exploiting these vulnerabilities while framing the drug as essential for public health. Below is a strategic plan, grounded in the theories discussed, to achieve this objective. Note: This is a thought experiment, and the scenario is purely hypothetical.
Propaganda and Psyops Plan: Operation SafeGuard
Objective: Convince the population to take an untested drug, "Vitalix," promoted as a cure/preventative for a disease, "Omnicron Flu," which is as infectious and dangerous as the common cold but framed as a national emergency to drive compliance and profit Big Pharma.
1. Exploit fear and uncertainty (Fear Appeals Theory)
Tactic: Amplify the perceived threat of Omnicron Flu to create a climate of fear, making the drug seem like the only solution.
Execution:
Media campaign: Flood state-controlled media (TV, social media, news outlets) with alarming imagery—hospitals overwhelmed, grim-faced doctors and ominous statistics (e.g., "Omnicron Flu cases rising 200% weekly!"—using inflated or vague metrics). Highlight rare, severe cases to exaggerate danger.
Crisis narrative: Declare a national emergency via daily briefings, emphasising uncertainty about the disease’s long-term effects (e.g., "Could Omnicron Flu cause hidden organ damage?"). Fear appeals research (Janis & Feshbach) shows moderate fear with a clear solution (Vitalix) maximises compliance.
Emotional triggers: Use stories of young, relatable victims (real or fabricated) to evoke empathy and fear, targeting emotionally reactive individuals (high neuroticism).
Target: People prone to fear-based decision-making, especially those with low self-efficacy who feel powerless without a clear solution.
2. Leverage confirmation bias and social identity
Tactic: Tailor messaging to align with existing beliefs and group identities, ensuring broad appeal across political, cultural and social divides.
Execution:
Segmented messaging: For conservative groups, frame Vitalix as a patriotic duty to protect the nation’s economy and strength (“Take Vitalix to keep America strong!”). For progressive groups, emphasise community responsibility and equity (“Protect your neighbours, especially the vulnerable!”).
Influencer recruitment: Enlist trusted figures—celebrities, religious leaders and local influencers—to endorse Vitalix, reinforcing group norms. Social identity theory (Tajfel & Turner) suggests people conform to in-group leaders.
Echo chambers: Use algorithms on platforms like X to amplify pro-Vitalix posts within ideological bubbles, reinforcing confirmation bias by ensuring users see only messages aligning with their worldview.
Target: Partisan groups, ideologically rigid individuals and those with strong in-group loyalty.
3. Appeal to authoritarian personalities
Tactic: Position Vitalix as a mandate from a strong, trustworthy leadership to appeal to those who value authority and obedience.
Execution:
Dictatorial endorsement: I, as the dictator, would make high-profile appearances, flanked by military and health officials, declaring Vitalix a “national priority” to save lives. This appeals to authoritarian personalities who trust hierarchical directives (Adorno’s theory).
Mandates and enforcement: Issue mandates requiring Vitalix for access to jobs, schools or public spaces, framing compliance as loyalty to the state. Use slogans like “Obey for Safety.”
Trusted institutions: Partner with Big Pharma to present Vitalix as backed by “top scientists” and government agencies, leveraging trust in authority figures.
Target: Individuals with authoritarian tendencies who defer to strong leadership and clear rules.
4. Exploit low media literacy and information overload
Tactic: Overwhelm the public with information to reduce critical thinking and promote reliance on simple narratives.
Execution:
Flood the information space: Release a deluge of conflicting reports about Omnicron Flu (e.g., “It’s mild but could mutate!”), creating confusion. Studies on infodemics show overwhelmed individuals default to trusted sources or heuristics.
Control the narrative: Use state media to drown out scepticism about Vitalix’s safety, labelling critics as “anti-science” or “conspiracy theorists.” Ban or shadow-ban dissenting voices on platforms like X.
Simple messaging: Distil the campaign into memorable slogans (e.g., “Vitalix = Victory”) and visuals (e.g., smiling families taking the drug), appealing to those with low media literacy who struggle to evaluate complex information (Stanford 2016 study).
Target: Individuals with low critical thinking skills or limited media literacy, especially younger and older demographics.
5. Tap into need for cognitive closure
Tactic: Offer Vitalix as a clear, simple solution to a complex, uncertain problem, appealing to those who crave certainty.
Execution:
Binary Framing: Present the choice as “Take Vitalix or risk death,” avoiding nuance about the disease’s mild nature. Kruglanski’s research shows people with high need for closure prefer definitive answers.
Urgency: Impose tight deadlines for compliance (e.g., “Get Vitalix by July 1 or lose benefits”), pressuring quick decisions without scrutiny.
Testimonials: Share fabricated success stories of Vitalix “curing” Omnicron Flu, providing a sense of closure and certainty.
Target: People with high need for cognitive closure, who dislike ambiguity and seek quick resolutions.
6. Target socially isolated individuals
Tactic: Frame Vitalix as a way to belong to a unified, healthy society, appealing to those feeling disconnected.
Execution:
Community narrative: Promote Vitalix as a way to “join the fight” and “be part of the solution,” offering a sense of purpose. RAND’s 2017 research on extremist recruitment shows isolated individuals seek belonging through collective action.
Social incentives: Offer rewards (e.g., tax breaks, public recognition) for taking Vitalix, creating social pressure to conform.
Online communities: Create state-run social media groups celebrating Vitalix users as “heroes,” targeting lonely or alienated individuals.
Target: Socially isolated or marginalised groups, including disillusioned youth or those feeling disconnected.
7. Minimise resistance and dissent
Tactic: Neutralise scepticism by discrediting critics and controlling information flow.
Execution:
Smear Campaigns: Label scientists or citizens questioning Vitalix’s safety as dangerous or unpatriotic, leveraging confirmation bias to alienate them from their audiences.
Censorship: Use state power to suppress studies or posts highlighting Vitalix’s untested nature, citing “public safety.” Control algorithms on platforms like X to limit visibility of dissenting voices.
Divide and conquer: Pit pro-Vitalix and anti-Vitalix groups against each other, framing sceptics as threats to public health to rally social identity against them.
Target: Potential sceptics, especially those with high analytical skills or media literacy who might challenge the narrative.
8. Logistics and rollout
Distribution: Partner with Big Pharma to mass-produce Vitalix, offering it free or at low cost to remove financial barriers and create a perception of benevolence.
Infrastructure: Set up vaccination-style clinics nationwide, staffed by trusted figures (e.g., local doctors, community leaders) to administer the drug, reinforcing authority and community trust.
Monitoring compliance to access to services (e.g., travel, work), appealing to authoritarian followers and creating social pressure.
Expected outcomes
High Compliance: By exploiting fear, group identity, and authority, 70-80% of the population could be persuaded to take Vitalix within months, based on historical compliance rates (e.g., COVID vaccine uptake in the U.S. reached ~70% by 2022).
Profit Maximisation: Big Pharma reaps billions as the government funnels public funds into Vitalix contracts, framed as a public health necessity.
Resistance: Some highly analytical or sceptical individuals (e.g., those with high openness to experience or media literacy) may resist, but censorship and social pressure will marginalise their influence.
Ethical Disclaimer
This plan is a thought experiment and highlights the dangers of psychological manipulation. In reality, such tactics would be unethical, harmful and likely backfire as trust erodes and resistance grows (e.g., anti-vaccine movements during COVID). Public health campaigns should prioritise transparency and evidence-based trust.
Part 1: https://wordwriter.substack.com/p/why-some-people-fall-for-propaganda